27 October 2010

Early voting in Maryland, projections after four days

During the early voting period prior to the September 2010 primary election, 77,288 people voted early, which represented 2.44% of all eligible voters.  Over the six day period, the numbers were as follows (with percentage of early voting total by day):

Day 1 (9/3/10): 14,049 (18.18% of all early voters)
Day 2 (9/4/10): 8,891 (11.50%)
Day 3 (9/6/10): 10,076 (13.04%)
Day 4 (9/7/10): 12,347 (15.98%)
Day 5 (9/8/10): 13,844 (17.91%)
Day 6 (9/9/10): 18,081 (23.39%)

Here are the numbers so far for the early voting period prior to the November 2010 general election (with percentage increase from the primary election):

Day 1 (10/22/10): 32,131 (+229% since Day 1 of primary election)
Day 2 (10/23/10): 28,282 (+318%)
Day 3 (10/25/10): 34,818 (+346%)
Day 4 (10/26/10): 35,970 (+291%)

Through the first four days, 131,201 people voted; this represents a 289% increase over the 45,363 people that voted through the first four days of the primary election early voting period.

Tuesday turnout review: Under my old model I projected ~35,600, but modified that formula to give more weight to previous days of general election turnout which bumped the projection to ~41,000.  The actual turnour of 35,970 shows that maybe I was too quick to abandon the old formula!  Either way, between the two models we're now starting to get closer each day.

Wednesday turnout preview: Under the primary election turnout model we estimate that ~40,000 people will vote on Wednesday; the general election turnout model estimates that ~44,000 will turnout.

Overall turnout: Remains the same at 230,000+ and projected to be somewhere between 6-7%.

Partisan turnout: The percentages of Democrats voting increased slightly on Tuesday, and likewise the share of Republicans declined slightly; but the overall numbers are the same.  D+7 and R+1 as compared to party registration; D-3 and R+-0 as compared to the primary election early voting turnout.
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