28 October 2010

Early voting in Maryland, projections after five days

During the early voting period prior to the September 2010 primary election, 77,288 people voted early, which represented 2.44% of all eligible voters.  Over the six day period, the numbers were as follows (with percentage of early voting total by day):

Day 1 (9/3/10): 14,049 (18.18% of all early voters)
Day 2 (9/4/10): 8,891 (11.50%)
Day 3 (9/6/10): 10,076 (13.04%)
Day 4 (9/7/10): 12,347 (15.98%)
Day 5 (9/8/10): 13,844 (17.91%)
Day 6 (9/9/10): 18,081 (23.39%)

Here are the numbers so far for the early voting period prior to the November 2010 general election (with percentage increase from the primary election):

Day 1 (10/22/10): 32,131 (+229% since Day 1 of primary election)
Day 2 (10/23/10): 28,282 (+318%)
Day 3 (10/25/10): 34,818 (+346%)
Day 4 (10/26/10): 35,970 (+291%)
Day 5 (10/27/10): 38,831 (+280%)

Through the first five days, 170,032 people voted; this represents a 287% increase over the 59,207 people that voted through the first five days of the primary election early voting period.

Tuesday turnout review: The primary election turnout model estimated ~40,000; the general election turnout model estimated ~44,000.  Clearly, the last two days is not matching the fantastic 300%+ rates we saw on Saturday and Monday.  It appears as if the numbers are coming back down in line with the primary election turning model which was <1,200 voters off.

Thursday turnout preview: As with the primary election early voting period, we might expect that the last day of early voting will show the highest turnout as all those voters who intended to vote early but haven't yet will stop procrastinating and get to the polls!  Under the primary election turnout model we estimate that ~51,900 people will vote on Thursday; the general election turnout model estimates that ~51,700 will turnout (the self-updating nature of this model is self-correcting itself toward the primary election voting model).

Overall turnout: Falloff in the rate of increase of voters the last two days has brought the overall turnout numbers closer to 220,000 and between 6-7%.

Partisan turnout: The percentages of Democrats and Republcians voting remained very close to the overall numbers  D+7 and R+<1 as compared to party registration; D-3 and R+-0 as compared to the primary election early voting turnout.
Post a Comment