15 November 2010

A mostly-final review of turnout projections in Anne Arundel County

I made my original projections here:
I am estimating that Republicans will turn out in 1994/2002 levels at 69%.  Democrats are certainly less enthused, but turnout in Anne Arundel County has always been higher than statewide.  It is difficult to imagine Democrats turning out in better numbers then they did in 2006, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and put their number at 65%.  With third party and unaffiliated voters typically at 50% or less, this brings our overall turnout to about 64%.
I reviewed the initial turnout numbers here with the caveat that absentee and provision ballots were not yet counted:
If we take 8-10% and presume those as reasonable limits, we find that perhaps somewhere in the range of 208,000 to 213,000 total people voted; this puts overall turnout in the range of 63-64%.  These are educated guesses based upon previous elections, and we'll refine them as more comes in, but those numbers have been pretty good indications of what to expect.
Well, the final numbers are in.  According to the Anne Arundel County Board of Elections website, 203,475 total votes were cast from a total of 331,098 registered voters, which represented 61.45% overall turnout.  The difference is that the 11,682 absentee and provisional votes represented only 5.7% of the total votes cast, as compared to the projection of 8-10%.  No partisan turnout numbers yet, but based upon what we have seen, we can expect they too will be a few percentage points short of the projections.

Generally speaking, I didn't nail turnout as close as I would have liked, but ~2.5% off seems pretty close given this was my first time doing any serious analysis of the numbers.  I'll have a few more 2010 election-related posts  including a final look at the slots voting (comparing final results to projections, and a look at voting by precinct) and a review of statewide turnout.
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