Prediction: The convention wisdom (which I see no reason to depart from) suggests that the Court will rule 5-3 (Justice Kagan is recused) that the affirmative action policy violates the Fourteenth Amendment. Opinion author is likely to be Justice Kennedy.
Result: In a 7-1 decision (with Justice Kagan recused), Justice Kennedy wrote for the Court that because the Fifth Circuit did not hold the University to the demanding burden of strict scrutiny articulated in Grutter and Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U. S. 265, its decision affirming the District Court’s grant of summary judgment to the University was incorrect. As a result, the case will return to the Fifth Circuit for another look. The practical impact of this decision is that the Court did not directly rule on the merits--this is a compromise decision that will be taken up again next term in a different case.
Prediction: Justice Alito will write for a 5-4 majority and reverse the First Circuit.
Result: Justice Alito wrote for a 5-4 majority that State-law design-defect claims that turn on the adequacy of a drug’s warnings are preempted by federal law under PLIVA.
Prediction: The Court will reverse the Fifth Circuit, finding that Congress did not have the authority to require the defendant to register as a sex offender.
Result: SORNA’s registration requirements as applied to Kebodeaux fall within the scope of Congress’ authority under the Necessary and Proper Clause.
Prediction: A 5-4 majority will reverse and find that the retaliation provision requires a plaintiff to prove but-for causation.
Result: A 5-4 majority reversed and found that Title VII retaliation claims must be proved according to traditional principles of but-for causation.
Prediction: A 7-2 majority will affirm the lower court's decision.
Result: An employee is a “supervisor” for purposes of vicarious liability under Title VII only if he or she is empowered by the employer to take tangible employment actions against the victim.