08 November 2006

Bullseye on 2008

In this post I talked about the seats Republicans lost due to scandal or other self-inflicted reasons. All but one of those seats are generally Republican territory. So they immediately go to the target list for 2008.

This from Stephen Spruiell at NRO:
At a luncheon on the Hill today sponsored by FreedomWorks (audio from speech here), Republican pollster Ed Goeas said that the losses we saw last night are average for mid-term elections, particularly mid-term elections in a time of war. He also said, “One of the things that is different from 1994, is that in 1994 when Republicans won 56 House seats, all but a handful were won by a range of 10 or more percent. Last night if you look at the election, of those 28 House seats, 22 were won by 2 percent or less — 22 of the 28. And of those, 18 were won by less than 5,000 votes, and four of those by less than a thousand votes.” Later he went over the numbers again, and concluded, “In other words you can basically go back and say that we lost control of Congress by 11 seats. You’re talking about less than 50,000 votes.”
We can add those seats (although some of them fit in the same category as above) to the list as well. If we assume that the Republicans will need 14-15 seats to take back the House in 2008, these seats are where they will start.
Post a Comment