29 October 2010

Final numbers for early voting in Maryland

During the early voting period prior to the September 2010 primary election, 77,288 people voted early, which represented 2.44% of all eligible voters.  Over the six day period, the numbers were as follows (with percentage of early voting total by day):

Day 1 (9/3/10): 14,049 (18.18% of all early voters)
Day 2 (9/4/10): 8,891 (11.50%)
Day 3 (9/6/10): 10,076 (13.04%)
Day 4 (9/7/10): 12,347 (15.98%)
Day 5 (9/8/10): 13,844 (17.91%)
Day 6 (9/9/10): 18,081 (23.39%)

Here are the numbers so far for the early voting period prior to the November 2010 general election (with percentage increase from the primary election):

Day 1 (10/22/10): 32,131 (+229% since Day 1 of primary election)
Day 2 (10/23/10): 28,282 (+318%)
Day 3 (10/25/10): 34,818 (+346%)
Day 4 (10/26/10): 35,970 (+291%)
Day 5 (10/27/10): 38,831 (+280%)
Day 6 (10/28/10): 49,578 (+274%)
Over the course of the six day early voting period, 219,610 people voted; this represents a 284% increase over the 77,288 people that voted during the primary election early voting period.

Wednesday turnout review: The primary election turnout model estimated ~51,900; the general election turnout model estimated ~51,700.  The final result of 49,578 voters on day 6 shows that both of our models came pretty close to capturing the final number, if overestimating it a bit.

Overall turnout:  The total turnout of 219,610 compared to our most recent prediction of 220,000 (!).  This represents 6.33% of all eligible voters as compared to our prediction of 6-7%.

Partisan turnout: The percentages of Democrats and Republcians voting over the six day early voting period: D+7 and R+0 as compared to party registration; D-3 and R+0 as compared to the primary election early voting turnout.

Election day projections:  I'm working on a post for the weekend that will use the turnout numbers from the early voting period combined with the primary election turnout numbers, to project overall turnout and turnout by party for Election Day.  I'll do this for the state and hopefully for Anne Arundel County too, which will help to predict the outcome of Question A.

2010 Maryland General Election Early Voting Turnout (Final)
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