02 November 2012

2012 election prediction

I confess I have no idea who will win. I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate wins, or even either candidate surpassing 300 EVs. But there are two reasons why I think Romney will win: First, the GOP base is fired up and more energetic, as seen in virtually every poll. As a result, I think Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than the polls generally project (for reference, 2008 was 39D, 32R, 29I or simply +7D). I think turnout is likely to be closer to 35R, 37D, 28I or +2D, maybe +3D). Second, most every poll shows Romney winning among self-described independents by large single digits. As a result, I have no good reason to deviate from the same map I have drawn over the past month or so. Final prediction: Romney 275, Obama 263.

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