09 June 2013
Supreme Court predictions, going forward
I made a big deal this year (and to a lesser extent, last year) out of my Supreme Court predictions. Rightly so, I might add: As of this writing I have correctly predicted 24/25 cases this term. That's good for 39th in the nation, according to FantasySCOTUS (yes, there is such a place), despite not making predictions on all cases. I'll hold that is a pretty good record for a first-year law student (the FantasySCOTUS average is 69.4%). Last term, I was 6/8. I also have a bunch of predictions remaining for this term.
All that being said, I feel like the business of predictions is overwhelming the focus of my blog of communicating decisions in plain English. Going forward, I think I'm going to spend less time on tedious predictions and more time on legal analysis. To be sure, part of that legal analysis will involve discussions about the potential outcomes of cases. But I think spending time tracking outcomes to a percentage is probably not the best use of my time; and I'm not sure that people (besides me) really care, either!
One of the goals of tracking predictions was to show you transparency and accountability--everyone likes to know when they're right, but I'm open to criticism when I'm wrong, too. I think over the last year I've shown you that. Hopefully I've gained your trust with the accuracy of my predictions enough so that you'll come to trust my legal analysis, too. But regardless of predictions, you can be sure that I'll be upfront about it all.
And while I have no illusions about being published, I'd like my legal analysis to be link-worthy. As always, your feedback is appreciated in helping me get there.