27 October 2010

"Democratic voters hit the polls early," but what does that mean?

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that Democratic voters hit the polls early, which is true:
In the first three days of early voting, registered Democrats, who make up 56 percent of the Maryland electorate, cast 63 percent of the ballots, according to elections board. Republicans, who make up 26 percent of the electorate, cast 27 percent of the ballots.
Right.  This matches up with what I've been reporting.  They even go so far as to point out that
[b]ecause this is the state's first general election with early voting, there are no historic data on which to base predictions.
Good!  But they fail to do any comparison to early voting in September's primary election early voting period, as I did yesterday, where Democrats turned out at a +10 advantage to their registration numbers as compared to +7 now.  So if the September early voting has any predictive value at all, it actually shows that Democrats are turning out -3 less than you would expect.
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