26 October 2010

Kratovil, Harris Race Evenly Split (but Harris will win)

From WBAL Baltimore:
According to a recent poll, it appears as if the race for Maryland's 1st Congressional District will be another close one.

In 2008, the race between Republican Andy Harris and current Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil took nearly a week to call because it was so close.

According to a recent poll of 520 voters by The Baltimore Sun, the candidates are tied with a 40 percent split, with 14 percent of those polled not sure who they'll vote for, 5 percent not saying and 1 percent not voting at all.
Interesting poll, because of the report that 1 percent said they were not voting at all. This indicates that the poll was done of registered voters. This close to the election, polls are typically done of likely voters, and likely voter polls tend show better numbers for Republican candidates.

MD-1 was extremely close in in 2008: Kratovil 177,065 (49.1%), Harris 174,213 (48.3%), Davis 8,873 (2.5%), and that was with the very high turnout in a presidential election year. Kratovil might get some support from O'Malley at the top of the ballot, but he won't get the same kind of support he received from Obama being on the ballot in 2008. Incredibly, every single county that Kratovil won was also won by John McCain except for Kent (Obama beat McCain there by 48 votes). Lower overall turnout means smaller margins for Kratovil in the places he won in 2008. Together, those margins should evaporate his overall lead.

I think this race will be close, although not as close as 2008. Andy Harris should win by 2-3 points.

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