26 October 2010

One week away; congressional electoral predictions!

Check out this graph of Gallup's 1994 Generic Congressional Ballot (Registered Voters):
The Republicans' largest lead was in June, when they lead 50-44.  By the time of the election in November, the lead had swapped several times, and in fact the last poll showed the parties tied at 46-46.  Of course, 1994 was a banner year for Republicans, picking up 54 seats in the House of Representatives and 8 seats in the Senate, gaining control of both bodies.

As of today, Gallup's Generic Congressional Ballot shows Republicans leading 48-44 (+4) among Registered Voters; 55-41 (+13) among Likely Voters in a Low Turnout Model, and 52-43 (+9) among Likely Voters in a High Turnout Model.

Translation: unless these numbers change dramatically toward the Democrats in the next week (and there isn't any indication to suggest they will), next Tuesday will be an electoral bloodbath for Democrats; on the order of 50-60+ seats in the House of Representatives (+39 would take control), and 8+ seats in the Senate.  Republicans will regain control of the House and will probably end up with 49 or even 50 seats in the Senate (they'd need 51 to control the Senate since the Vice President could break a tie); although a majority in the Senate is not out of the question.

Do you think I am way off, that you're still be seeing Speaker Pelosi next year?  Ok then, who wants to bet me a beer that Democrats will retain control of the House?  Anyone?
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