03 November 2010

Quick and dirty election postmortem (Maryland and Anne Arundel County)

I'll get into more specific numbers later, but let's take a look at projections vs. results here in Maryland and Anne Arundel County:
U.S. Congress: MD-1 (Harris), MD-2 (Ruppersberger), MD-3 (Sarbanes), MD-4 (Edwards), MD-5 (Hoyer), MD-6 (Bartlett), MD-7 (Cummings), MD-8 (Van Hollen, Jr.).  The only race that promises to be close is the MD-1 race between Andy Harris (R) and Frank Kratovil (inc. D).  I've already chimed in on that race here, but generally speaking, the edge should go to Andy Harris by 2-3 points.
7 for 7 among the Maryland congressional delegation.  While the final, official numbers aren't yet in, Andy Harris is currently shown leading (soon-to-be former Congressman) Frank Kratovil 54.6% to 41.5% so I missed the margin there considerably (I'll have some later comments on turnout in Maryland in general, and why this may have had a role in this particular election).  This race, however, was not a "major upset" as I heard on the radio this morning.  The race has been Harris' to win all along.
U.S. Senate: Like most of the House races, not a close contest. Mikulski (inc. D).
Easiest prediction of the night.
Maryland Governor: Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley has been somewhat immune to the nationwide political environment due to relatively low unemployment (based upon, for example, large numbers of government employees).  Add to this the more than 2-1 advantage for Democrats in registration numbers and I think this is just too much for former Governor Bob Ehrlich to overcome.  Ehrlich should win Anne Arundel County with at least 55% or so, but that won't be enough to overcome the large advantages that O'Malley receives in the D.C. suburbs.  I'm thinking about 53% to 45% in favor of O'Malley over Ehrlich.
Second easiest prediction of the night.  I was hoping Ehrlich could prove me wrong and made it a race, but it wasn't to be.  Current numbers show O'Malley at 55.8% to Ehrlich's 42.2%.  In Anne Arundel County, Ehrlich lead by 54.6% to 43.0%.  Prediction-wise, a few points off in the state, very close in Anne Arundel County.
Question A: I've talked in length about this subject, so I won't spend too much time here other than to say that based upon my projected turnout numbers in Anne Arundel County, I think Question A will pass with 51.0-52.3% for, and 47.7-49.0% against.  While this is not strictly a partisan issue, we've seen that Democrats tend to be for it (56 for, 37 against), Republicans and unaffiliated voters tend to be against it (44-51), and U (39-54).  Since it is a relatively close vote, stronger than expected turnout by either party could tilt the vote either way.  Even then, this is the prediction I am least confident about.  Small changes in support among members of either party could swing the results either way.
My least confident pick was never in doubt.  There are still a few votes left to be counted, but Question A leads with 55.7% to 44.3%.  As I noted above, I think this is another race in which turnout may have had more an impact.  Also remember that these projections were based upon two polls in which we didn't have the crosstabs and made some major assumptions based on shaky data.  Still, to be within 3-4 points both ways (and of course, on the correct side of the projection), is a good feeling.  I'll have a full post later dedicated to Question A.

Among the Maryland and Anne Arundel County projections, there were really no surprises, and everything went more or less as expected.
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