Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

09 November 2016

2016 election in review

Well, perhaps I should stop making election predictions! I thought Hillary Clinton would win, but I'm not at all surprised that Donald Trump won. 

In the end, this election turned on the ability of Trump to break through Hillary's "blue wall" in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Along with Indiana and Ohio, the rust belt was the difference in this election.

It's worth taking one more look at Trump's closing ad. I think this ad will go down as the defining ad of the campaign. Take a look and see what you think.

05 November 2016

2016 election prediction

I misread the polls badly in 2012 and thought Romney would win a close election. It turned out it wasn't that close. For all of the reasons I discounted the polls in 2012, times 100, I really don't know what to think of the polls this time around. All of the convention wisdom has been busted this election cycle. Undoubtedly, the race has tightened considerably within the last two weeks. Is it enough to push Trump over the edge? Possible. Most of the prediction sites have given Trump something like a 35% chance, which is up from the teens just a few weeks ago. We're definitely in margin of error territory. A Brexit-like result is certainly not impossible here.

Still, though, despite all of the winds in Trump's favor, a few strands remain. First, Hillary Clinton has likely banked many millions of early votes. This is likely to preserve a small number of votes that might have left her within the last week. Second, the surge to Trump appears to have come not from undecided voters, but from Republican-leaning independents who are coming back to the base (from candidates like Gary Johnson). Third, the path to electoral victory is strategically easier for Hillary as compared to Trump. There are simply many more options. Trump has to basically run the table on all of the swing states.

I think Hillary Clinton will win this election. Here is my predicted electoral vote map:

The closest states on this map (in order of decreasing electoral votes) are: Florida (29), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). RCP's "no toss up" map has Nevada and New Hampshire currently leaning toward Trump, but I think they'll ultimately end up on the Clinton side.

Now, with that being said, here is Trump's best chance of winning. As you can see, it comes by the narrowest of margins, but isn't all that far-fetched--in fact, all I did was start with RCP's "no toss up" map on Saturday, November 5th (Clinton 297, Trump 241) and flip Florida's 29 electoral votes to Trump. Florida is so close that this single flip (which is entirely possible) would change the outcome of the election. These predictions show just how close the election might possibly be:


Again, I think Hillary Clinton is likely to win. But if Trump can pull it off, the map will likely look like this one above.

29 September 2013

I had no faith in my own Breaking Bad prediction (spoiler)

Sunday morning, I took a guess at how I thought the Breaking Bad finale might turn out. I (and I assume many others) thought it was too obvious to happen, so I foolishly qualified it with just that point:


Well, needless to say, I was pretty close. :-)

12 August 2013

Maryland, delayed foreclosures, and herd immunity

The Washington Post notes that thousands of Marylanders are losing homes in a second wave of foreclosures. Others have already noted this hit. Worse yet, the Post article acknowledges that "foreclosure experts and state officials knew [it] was coming but no one wanted to see." So they knew it was coming, and did it anyway. Thanks for nothing. Like an ostrich with its head in the sand.

For what its worth, I think the Post is somewhat disingenuous in acknowledging that state officials knew the inevitable was coming. While it is true that some rhetoric acknowledged that the state was just delaying the inevitable, other statements suggested that the state was taking preventative measures.

The article does contrast the Maryland foreclosure process, which has been painfully drawn out over an average of 575 days (among the longest), with Virginia, whose foreclosure crisis has largely run its course (an average of 184 days, the shortest in the nation). I will be very curious to see economists do a post-mortem comparing Maryland's heavy-handed, interventionist approach to foreclosures vs. Virginia's hands-off approach.

What this article fails to deliver is a definitive verdict on Governor O'Malley's policies: is the second wave worse than it would have been if the state had just allowed foreclosures to happen? Or have they, as expected, made things worse?

In at least one measurable way, these policies have made things worse. Maryland's intervention has delayed the recovery of housing prices in Maryland, as predicted last year. As a result, homeowners not affected by foreclosures have felt the impact because their mortgages continue to be underwater. Delaying foreclosures in Maryland is akin to people choosing not to vaccinate their kids; as a result, the herd immunity (so to speak) suffers. I like to think of timely foreclosures acting as a firewall to the spread of more foreclosures. When foreclosures are delayed, everyone suffers through lower housing prices.

I was one of many who warned this time would come. I take no small bit of pride in acknowledging this. I would rather have been wrong. And while I an not a housing expert, I take my predictions and warnings seriously. I make them with due consideration to all of the available information. My track record stands by itself. And I have not been hesitant to admit when I have been wrong.

It is also no small bit of irony that this article came to my attention when it was tweeted by Occupy Wall Street. That loose collective appears to have the same short institutional memory as Anonymous--the Occupy movement has fought foreclosures at every turn. Now, it's somehow newsworthy that a policy that Occupy actively advocated--indeed, actively participated in favor of--comes back to kick people in the ass.

26 June 2013

Supreme Court final week summary (end of term update)

Here are case summaries from today's three final opinions of the Supreme Court's term:

Hollingsworth v. Perry: (1) Does Hollingsworth have standing to defend Prop 8? and (2) Does the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment prohibit California from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman (it is important to note that the first question is a threshold question, meaning it must be decided in the affirmative for the Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality question)?

Prediction: A majority of the Court will decide that Hollingsworth does not have standing to defend Prop 8. As a result, the Court will not rule on the merits. Same sex marriage will remain legal in California, but the ruling will be limited and won't apply elsewhere. Here I predicted that Chief Justice Roberts would write the majority opinion.

Result: In a 5-4 decision written by Chief Justice Roberts, the Supreme Court ruled that Hollingsworth did not have standing to appeal. As a result, the Ninth Circuit's decision was reversed and remanded. The practical impact of this decision is that same sex marriage will be permitted in California, because the petitioners do not have standing to defend the law. This is a narrow ruling that will not apply outside of California.

United States v. Windsor: (1) Did the federal government's decision not to defend DOMA take away jurisdiction from the Supreme Court to hear the case? and (2) Does the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group have standing to defend DOMA? and 3) Is DOMA unconstitutional by violating the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of equal protection?

Prediction: BLAG will have standing, and the Court will strike down DOMA. However, I won't be surprised to see a plurality opinion on the reasoning. Here I predicted that Justice Kennedy would write the majority opinion.

Result: In a 5-4 decision written by Justice Kennedy, the Supreme Court ruled that DOMA is unconstitutional as a deprivation of the equal liberty of persons that is protected by the Fifth Amendment. The practical impact of this decision is that the federal government cannot deny benefits to same-sex couples.

Sekhar v. United States: Does the "recommendation" of an attorney, who is a salaried employee of a governmental agency, in a single instance, constitute intangible property that can be the subject of an extortion attempt under the Hobbs Act?

Prediction: The Court will reverse in a unanimous decision. Here I predicted that Justice Scalia would write the majority opinion.

Result: In a 9-0 decision written by Justice Scalia, the Supreme Court ruled that attempting to compel a person to recommend that his employer approve an investment does not constitute the obtaining of property from another under the Hobbs Act. As a result, Sekhar's convicted was reversed.

25 June 2013

Reading the tea leaves on tomorrow's Supreme Court decisions

 EDITED (6/26/13): Correct on all three!

Here is the breakdown of opinions by author for this term:

9: Ginsburg
8: Thomas, Breyer, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan
7: Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy

While there is no rule of the Court that requires an even distribution of opinions, it seems like that among tomorrow's three cases, we may see opinions from Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Scalia and Kennedy. If in fact those justices author tomorrow's opinions, I might expect something like this:

Sekhar v. United States: Scalia

It seems unlikely that Justice Ginsburg would write a tenth opinion, but it's certainly possible. And there is nothing to prevent one of the other liberal justices from writing a ninth.

Opinions are announced in order of reverse seniority, so we should have a good idea of what to expect when we see the first decision.

Supreme Court final week preview and predictions (June 25 update)

There are 3 remaining cases in the Supreme Court's current term. The last opinions are expected to be handed down on Wednesday morning. Here are the important questions in each case:

Hollingsworth v. Perry: (1) Does Hollingsworth have standing to defend Prop 8? and (2) Does the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment prohibit California from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman (it is important to note that the first question was threshold question, meaning it must be decided in the affirmative for the Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality question)?

Prediction: A majority of the Court will decide that Hollingsworth does not have standing to defend Prop 8. As a result, the Court will not rule on the merits. Same sex marriage will remain legal in California, but the ruling will be limited and won't apply elsewhere.

United States v. Windsor: (1) Did the federal government's decision not to defend DOMA take away jurisdiction from the Supreme Court to hear the case? and (2) Does the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group have standing to defend DOMA? and 3) Is DOMA unconstitutional by violating the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of equal protection?

Prediction: BLAG will have standing, and the Court will strike down DOMA. However, I won't be surprised to see a plurality opinion on the reasoning.

Sekhar v. United States: Does the "recommendation" of an attorney, who is a salaried employee of a governmental agency, in a single instance, constitute intangible property that can be the subject of an extortion attempt under the Hobbs Act?

Prediction: The Court will reverse in a unanimous decision.

Supreme Court final week summary (June 25 update)

Here are summaries from today's three opinions. The Supreme Court will be back tomorrow morning for  the last opinion announcements (stay tuned for my preview later today). Click on the name of the case for a link to my "Plain English" page for that case.

Shelby County v. Holder: Did Congress’ decision to reauthorize Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act under the pre-existing coverage formula of Section 4(b) of the VRA exceed its authority under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments and thus violate the Tenth Amendment and Article IV of the United States Constitution?

Prediction: Chief Justice Roberts will write for a 5-4 majority that the VRA is unconstitutional.

Result: In a 5-4 decision, Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the Supreme Court ruled that Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act t is unconstitutional; its formula can no longer be used as a basis for subjecting jurisdictions to preclearance. As a result, Congress cannot use the VRA's existing preclearance formula to single out jurisdictions--they must use data about current conditions.

Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District: (1) Is it a "taking" to deny a development permit for failing to satisfy government-imposed conditions? and (2) Does the taking violate the essential nexus (a sufficient link between the demand on the property owner and the public policy at issue) and rough proportionality (any attempt by a local government to require dedication of a part of private property to a public use has to be proportional to the public impact of the project) tests set out in the Court's prior takings decisions?

Prediction: A narrow majority of the Court will rule that denial of the development permit was not a taking.

Result: In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the government’s demand for property from a land-use permit applicant must satisfy the Nollan / Dolan requirements even when it denies the permit (those cases held that the government may not condition the approval of a land use permit on the owner’s relinquishment of a portion of his property unless there is a nexus and rough proportionality between the government’s demand and the effects of the proposed land use.As a result, the Court reversed and remanded the case.The practical impact of this decision bolsters the rights of property owners to fight unreasonable demands held hostage by building permits.

Adoptive Couple v. Baby Girl: Can a non-custodial parent could invoke the Indian Child Welfare Act of 1978 (ICWA), 25 U.S.C. §§ 1901-63, to block an adoption voluntarily and lawfully initiated by a non-Indian parent under state law? and (2) Does the ICWA define “parent” in 25 U.S.C. § 1903(9) to include an unwed biological father who has not complied with state law rules to attain legal status as a parent?

Prediction: Personally, I've love to see the Court reverse the South Carolina Supreme Court's ruling, but I am pessimistic that this will happen. It seems more likely they will affirm and let the biological father keep the child.

Result: In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court reversed the judgment of the South Carolina Supreme Court and remanded for further proceedings. The Court ruled that the Indian Child Welfare Act does not bar termination of the biological father's paternal rights because it applied to a child who was removed--the ICWA’s primary goal is not implicated when an Indian child’s adoption is voluntarily and lawfully initiated by a non-Indian parent with sole custodial rights. In other words, the provisions were not designed to apply to the circumstances presented by this case. As a result, the order returning the baby to the biological father was thrown out.

24 June 2013

Supreme Court final week preview and predictions (June 24 update)

There are 6 remaining cases in the Supreme Court's current term. Here are the important questions in each case:

Shelby County v. Holder: Did Congress’ decision to reauthorize Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act under the pre-existing coverage formula of Section 4(b) of the VRA exceed its authority under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments and thus violate the Tenth Amendment and Article IV of the United States Constitution?

Prediction: Chief Justice Roberts will write for a 5-4 majority that the VRA is unconstitutional.

Hollingsworth v. Perry: (1) Does Hollingsworth have standing to defend Prop 8? and (2) Does the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment prohibit California from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman (it is important to note that the first question was threshold question, meaning it must be decided in the affirmative for the Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality question)?

Prediction: A majority of the Court will decide that Hollingsworth does not have standing to defend Prop 8. As a result, the Court will not rule on the merits. Same sex marriage will remain legal in California, but the ruling will be limited and won't apply elsewhere.

United States v. Windsor: (1) Did the federal government's decision not to defend DOMA take away jurisdiction from the Supreme Court to hear the case? and (2) Does the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group have standing to defend DOMA? and 3) Is DOMA unconstitutional by violating the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of equal protection?

Prediction: BLAG will have standing, and the Court will strike down DOMA. However, I won't be surprised to see a plurality opinion on the reasoning.

Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District: (1) Is it a "taking" to deny a development permit for failing to satisfy government-imposed conditions? and (2) Does the taking violate the essential nexus (a sufficient link between the demand on the property owner and the public policy at issue) and rough proportionality (any attempt by a local government to require dedication of a part of private property to a public use has to be proportional to the public impact of the project) tests set out in the Court's prior takings decisions?

Prediction: A narrow majority of the Court will rule that denial of the development permit was not a taking.

Adoptive Couple v. Baby Girl: Can a non-custodial parent could invoke the Indian Child Welfare Act of 1978 (ICWA), 25 U.S.C. §§ 1901-63, to block an adoption voluntarily and lawfully initiated by a non-Indian parent under state law? and (2) Does the ICWA define “parent” in 25 U.S.C. § 1903(9) to include an unwed biological father who has not complied with state law rules to attain legal status as a parent?

Prediction: Personally, I've love to see the Court reverse the South Carolina Supreme Court's ruling, but I am pessimistic that this will happen. It seems more likely they will affirm and let the biological father keep the child.

Sekhar v. United States: Does the "recommendation" of an attorney, who is a salaried employee of a governmental agency, in a single instance, constitute intangible property that can be the subject of an extortion attempt under the Hobbs Act?

Prediction: The Court will reverse in a unanimous decision.

Supreme Court final week summary (June 24 update)

Here are summaries from today's five opinions. The Supreme Court will be back tomorrow morning for more opinion announcements. Click on the name of the case for a link to my "Plain English" page for that case.

Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin: Does the University's use of race in admissions decisions as a means of affirmative action violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment?

Prediction: The convention wisdom (which I see no reason to depart from) suggests that the Court will rule 5-3 (Justice Kagan is recused) that the affirmative action policy violates the Fourteenth Amendment. Opinion author is likely to be Justice Kennedy.

Result: In a 7-1 decision (with Justice Kagan recused), Justice Kennedy wrote for the Court that because the Fifth Circuit did not hold the University to the demanding burden of strict scrutiny articulated in Grutter and Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U. S. 265, its decision affirming the District Court’s grant of summary judgment to the University was incorrect. As a result, the case will return to the Fifth Circuit for another look. The practical impact of this decision is that the Court did not directly rule on the merits--this is a compromise decision that will be taken up again next term in a different case

Mutual Pharmaceutical Co. v. Bartlett: Did the the First Circuit Court of Appeals err when it held that federal law does not preempt state law design-defect claims targeting generic pharmaceutical products because the conceded conflict between such claims and the federal laws governing generic pharmaceutical design allegedly can be avoided if the makers of generic pharmaceuticals simply stop making their products?

Prediction: Justice Alito will write for a 5-4 majority and reverse the First Circuit.

Result: Justice Alito wrote for a 5-4 majority that State-law design-defect claims that turn on the adequacy of a drug’s warnings are preempted by federal law under PLIVA.

United States v. Kebodeaux: Did the court of appeals err in conducting its analysis on the premise that respondent was not under a federal registration obligation until the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) was enacted, when pre-SORNA federal law obligated him to register as a sex offender? and (2) Did the court of appeals err in holding that Congress lacks the Article I authority to provide for criminal penalties as applied to a person who was convicted of a sex offense under federal law and completed his criminal sentence before SORNA was enacted?

Prediction: The Court will reverse the Fifth Circuit, finding that Congress did not have the authority to require the defendant to register as a sex offender.

Result: SORNA’s registration requirements as applied to Kebodeaux fall within the scope of Congress’ authority under the Necessary and Proper Clause.

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center v. Nassar: Does the retaliation provision of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and similarly worded statutes require a plaintiff to prove but-for causation (i.e., that an employer would not have taken an adverse employment action but for an improper motive), or instead require only proof that the employer had a mixed motive (i.e., that an improper motive was one of multiple reasons for the employment action)?

Prediction: A 5-4 majority will reverse and find that the retaliation provision requires a plaintiff to prove but-for causation.

Result: A 5-4 majority reversed and found that Title VII retaliation claims must be proved according to traditional principles of but-for causation.

Vance v. Ball State University: Does another employee who was responsible for assigning work on a day-to-day basis, but wasn't otherwise responsible for hiring, firing, transferring, demoting, disciplining, or promoting decisions qualify as "supervisor" which would subject the University to harassment claims?

Prediction: A 7-2 majority will affirm the lower court's decision.

Result: An employee is a “supervisor” for purposes of vicarious liability under Title VII only if he or she is empowered by the employer to take tangible employment actions against the victim.

21 June 2013

Supreme Court final week preview and predictions

There are 11 remaining cases in the Supreme Court's current term. Here are the important questions in each case:

Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin: Does the University's use of race in admissions decisions as a means of affirmative action violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment?

Prediction: The convention wisdom (which I see no reason to depart from) suggests that the Court will rule 5-3 (Justice Kagan is recused) that the affirmative action policy violates the Fourteenth Amendment. Opinion author is likely to be Justice Kennedy.

Shelby County v. Holder: Did Congress’ decision to reauthorize Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act under the pre-existing coverage formula of Section 4(b) of the VRA exceed its authority under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments and thus violate the Tenth Amendment and Article IV of the United States Constitution?

Prediction: Chief Justice Roberts will write for a 5-4 majority that the VRA is unconstitutional.

Hollingsworth v. Perry: (1) Does Hollingsworth have standing to defend Prop 8? and (2) Does the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment prohibit California from defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman (it is important to note that the first question was threshold question, meaning it must be decided in the affirmative for the Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality question)?

Prediction: A majority of the Court will decide that Hollingsworth does not have standing to defend Prop 8. As a result, the Court will not rule on the merits. Same sex marriage will remain legal in California, but the ruling will be limited and won't apply elsewhere.

United States v. Windsor: (1) Did the federal government's decision not to defend DOMA take away jurisdiction from the Supreme Court to hear the case? and (2) Does the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group have standing to defend DOMA? and 3) Is DOMA unconstitutional by violating the Fifth Amendment's guarantee of equal protection?

Prediction: BLAG will have standing, and the Court will strike down DOMA. However, I won't be surprised to see a plurality opinion on the reasoning.

Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District: (1) Is it a "taking" to deny a development permit for failing to satisfy government-imposed conditions? and (2) Does the taking violate the essential nexus (a sufficient link between the demand on the property owner and the public policy at issue) and rough proportionality (any attempt by a local government to require dedication of a part of private property to a public use has to be proportional to the public impact of the project) tests set out in the Court's prior takings decisions?

Prediction: A narrow majority of the Court will rule that denial of the development permit was not a taking.

Adoptive Couple v. Baby Girl: Can a non-custodial parent could invoke the Indian Child Welfare Act of 1978 (ICWA), 25 U.S.C. §§ 1901-63, to block an adoption voluntarily and lawfully initiated by a non-Indian parent under state law? and (2) Does the ICWA define “parent” in 25 U.S.C. § 1903(9) to include an unwed biological father who has not complied with state law rules to attain legal status as a parent?

Prediction: Personally, I've love to see the Court reverse the South Carolina Supreme Court's ruling, but I am pessimistic that this will happen. It seems more likely they will affirm and let the biological father keep the child.

Mutual Pharmaceutical Co. v. Bartlett: Did the the First Circuit Court of Appeals err when it held that federal law does not preempt state law design-defect claims targeting generic pharmaceutical products because the conceded conflict between such claims and the federal laws governing generic pharmaceutical design allegedly can be avoided if the makers of generic pharmaceuticals simply stop making their products?

Prediction: Justice Alito will write for a 5-4 majority and reverse the First Circuit.

United States v. Kebodeaux: Did the court of appeals err in conducting its analysis on the premise that respondent was not under a federal registration obligation until the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) was enacted, when pre-SORNA federal law obligated him to register as a sex offender? and (2) Did the court of appeals err in holding that Congress lacks the Article I authority to provide for criminal penalties as applied to a person who was convicted of a sex offense under federal law and completed his criminal sentence before SORNA was enacted?

Prediction: The Court will reverse the Fifth Circuit, finding that Congress did not have the authority to require the defendant to register as a sex offender.

Sekhar v. United States: Does the "recommendation" of an attorney, who is a salaried employee of a governmental agency, in a single instance, constitute intangible property that can be the subject of an extortion attempt under the Hobbs Act?

Prediction: The Court will reverse in a unanimous decision.

University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center v. Nassar: Does the retaliation provision of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and similarly worded statutes require a plaintiff to prove but-for causation (i.e., that an employer would not have taken an adverse employment action but for an improper motive), or instead require only proof that the employer had a mixed motive (i.e., that an improper motive was one of multiple reasons for the employment action)?

Prediction: A 5-4 majority will reverse and find that the retaliation provision requires a plaintiff to prove but-for causation.

Vance v. Ball State University: Does another employee who was responsible for assigning work on a day-to-day basis, but wasn't otherwise responsible for hiring, firing, transferring, demoting, disciplining, or promoting decisions qualify as "supervisor" which would subject the University to harassment claims?

Prediction: A 7-2 majority will affirm the lower court's decision.

09 June 2013

Supreme Court predictions, going forward

I made a big deal this year (and to a lesser extent, last year) out of my Supreme Court predictions. Rightly so, I might add: As of this writing I have correctly predicted 24/25 cases this term. That's good for 39th in the nation, according to FantasySCOTUS (yes, there is such a place), despite not making predictions on all cases. I'll hold that is a pretty good record for a first-year law student (the FantasySCOTUS average is 69.4%). Last term, I was 6/8. I also have a bunch of predictions remaining for this term.

All that being said, I feel like the business of predictions is overwhelming the focus of my blog of communicating decisions in plain English. Going forward, I think I'm going to spend less time on tedious predictions and more time on legal analysis. To be sure, part of that legal analysis will involve discussions about the potential outcomes of cases. But I think spending time tracking outcomes to a percentage is probably not the best use of my time; and I'm not sure that people (besides me) really care, either!

One of the goals of tracking predictions was to show you transparency and accountability--everyone likes to know when they're right, but I'm open to criticism when I'm wrong, too. I think over the last year I've shown you that. Hopefully I've gained your trust with the accuracy of my predictions enough so that you'll come to trust my legal analysis, too. But regardless of predictions, you can be sure that I'll be upfront about it all.

And while I have no illusions about being published, I'd like my legal analysis to be link-worthy. As always, your feedback is appreciated in helping me get there.

19 March 2013

Law in Plain English: Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons

This is one in a series of posts designed to describe court decisions in plain English. For more detail and background on the legal issues, see the link to the case below. For similar posts, click here.


Kirtsaeng moved from Thailand to the United States. He asked friends and family to buy foreign edition English-language textbooks in Thailand (where the prices were cheaper),  and to mail them to him in the United States. He then sold the books, and kept the profit. Wiley sued Kirtsaeng, alleging copyright violation. Kirtsaeng claimed reselling the books was a limitation to Wiley's exclusive rights under the first sale doctrine (codified at 17 U.S.C. 109(a)). The question before the Court was whether the first sale doctrine applies to works made abroad and then imported into the United States. In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the phrase "lawfully made under this title" in Section 109(a) had no geographic limitation. As a result, the the first sale doctrine does in fact apply to works made aboard and then imported into the United States. The practical impact of this decision is to give consumers greater flexibility in taking advantage of the first sale doctrine.

Incidentally, I'm not at all disappointed to report that this is my first incorrect prediction of the term:
I was pessimistic about the outcome. Personally I think Justice Ginsburg's dissent is a better reading of current copyright law, but I'm not going to object.

03 March 2013

Constitutionality of the Voting Rights Act

In the wake of the Supreme Court oral arguments in the case of Shelby County v. Holder, I have engaged a number of people in debate over the core issue of the case: whether Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act is constitutional. Most of this debate has been over Twitter, which isn't the best forum for debates in general. It's also a poor means of discussing an issue that requires a considerable amount of background to bring oneself up to speed on the issue. So this post is meant to serve as that background, and as a launching pad to further debate.

The Wikipedia page is sufficiently detailed to understand the history of the Voting Rights Act in general. What we're concerned about here is Section 5, which mandates preclearance. Preclearance means that certain jurisdictions are required by law to receive federal permission for certain changes to their election law or changes to the voting location. For a list of current jurisdictions covered by Section 5, see here.

Section 2 of the VRA outlaws all of these violations; it applies to the entire country and (even in the absence of Section 5) is an extraordinarily powerful tool to remedy voting rights violations. But let's be clear in understanding that Section 5 was originally designed as a temporary, emergency provision. The reason is because it has extraordinary federalism costs by violating a state's sovereignty (elections are run by states, not the federal government; Section 5 essentially put these states and political subdivisions into federal receivership). It was justified (rightly so) by egregious voting rights violations. Enforcing the 15th Amendment outweighed the cost of intruding on a state's sovereignty.

The jurisdictions covered by Section 5 were determined by a preclearance formula outlined in Section 4(b). Here's how the Justice Department describes the formula for coverage (emphasis is mine):
As enacted in 1965, the first element in the formula was whether, on November 1, 1964, the state or a political subdivision of the state maintained a "test or device" restricting the opportunity to register and vote. The Act's definition of a "test or device" included such requirements as the applicant being able to pass a literacy test, establish that he or she had good moral character, or have another registered voter vouch for his or her qualifications.
The second element of the formula would be satisfied if the Director of the Census determined that less than 50 percent of persons of voting age were registered to vote on November 1, 1964, or that less than 50 percent of persons of voting age voted in the presidential election of November 1964. This resulted in the following states becoming, in their entirety, "covered jurisdictions": Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Virginia. In addition, certain political subdivisions (usually counties) in four other states (Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, and North Carolina) were covered. In fully covered states, the state itself and all political subdivisions of the state are subject to the special provisions. In "partially covered" states, the special provisions applied only to the identified counties. Voting changes adopted by or to be implemented in covered political subdivisions, including changes applicable to the state as a whole, are subject to review under Section 5.
In 1970, Congress recognized the continuing need for the special provisions of the Act, which were due to expire that year, and renewed them for another five years. It added a second prong to the coverage formula, identical to the original formula except that it referenced November 1968 as the relevant date for the maintenance of a test or device and the levels of voter registration and electoral participation. This addition to the formula resulted in the partial coverage of ten states, including Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Wyoming. Half of these states (Connecticut, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, and Wyoming) filed successful "bailout" lawsuits. 
In 1975, the Act's special provisions were extended for another seven years, and were broadened to address voting discrimination against members of "language minority groups," which were defined as persons who are American Indian, Asian American, Alaskan Natives or of Spanish heritage." As before, Congress expanded the coverage formula, based on the presence of tests or devices and levels of voter registration and participation as of November 1972. In addition, the 1965 definition of "test or device" was expanded to include the practice of providing any election information, including ballots, only in English in states or political subdivisions where members of a single language minority constituted more than five percent of the citizens of voting age. This third prong of the coverage formula had the effect of covering Alaska, Arizona, and Texas in their entirety, and parts of California, Florida, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, and South Dakota. 
In 1982, the coverage formula was extended again, this time for 25 years, but no changes were made to it. In 2006, the coverage formula was again extended for 25 years. Section 4, along with those other sections that are dependent upon it, such as Section 5 and 8, will expire in 2031.
The key takeaway is that all of the jurisdictions that are currently covered by the preclearance requirement were determined in 1975, based on voter registration and participation data from 1964, 1968, and 1972.

The Justice Department goes on to explain how a jurisdiction can get removed from the preclearance requirement, or "bail out:"
Section 4 also provides that a jurisdiction may terminate or "bailout" from coverage under the Act's special provisions. Originally enacted in 1965 as a means to remedy any possible over inclusiveness resulting from application of the trigger formula, Congress amended this procedure in 1982 so jurisdictions that meet the statutory standards can obtain relief. The amendment, which took effect on August 5, 1984, establishes an "objective" measure to determine whether the jurisdiction is entitled to "bailout". 
A jurisdiction seeking to "bailout" must seek a declaratory judgment from a three-judge panel in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. On June 22, 2009, the Supreme Court held that any jurisdiction currently required to make Section 5 submissions may seek to "bailout" from coverage if it meets the statutory criteria set forth below. 
The successful "bailout" applicant must demonstrate that during the past ten years:
No test or device has been used within the jurisdiction for the purpose or with the effect of voting discrimination; 
--All changes affecting voting have been reviewed under Section 5 prior to their implementation;
--No change affecting voting has been the subject of an objection by the Attorney General or the denial of a Section 5 declaratory judgment from the District of Columbia district court;
--There have been no adverse judgments in lawsuits alleging voting discrimination;
--There have been no consent decrees or agreements that resulted in the abandonment of a discriminatory voting practice;
--There are no pending lawsuits that allege voting discrimination; and
--Federal examiners have not been assigned;
--There have been no violations of the Constitution or federal, state or local laws with respect to voting discrimination unless the jurisdiction establishes that any such violations were trivial, were promptly corrected, and were not repeated. 
Before being allowed to "bailout", the jurisdiction must have eliminated those voting procedures and methods of elections that inhibit or dilute equal access to the electoral process. It also must demonstrate that it has made constructive efforts to eliminate intimidation and harassment of persons seeking to register and vote and expand opportunities for voter participation, such as opportunities for registration and voting, and to appoint minority officials throughout the jurisdiction and at all levels of the stages of the electoral process. The jurisdiction must also present evidence of minority electoral participation. 
In addition, these requirements apply to all governmental units within the geographical boundaries of the jurisdiction. Thus, if a county is seeking to "bailout", it must establish each criteria for every city, town, school district, or other entity within its boundaries.
The jurisdiction seeking "bailout" must publicize the intended commencement and any proposed settlement of the action; any aggrieved party may intervene in the litigation. After the granting of a declaratory judgment, the statute requires a ten-year "recapture" period. During this time, the district court may reopen proceedings should the jurisdiction engage in any conduct that would have prevented the jurisdiction from bailing out in the first instance. Under such circumstances, the district court will review the evidence and determine whether to reinstate coverage.
The Attorney General is also authorized to consent to an entry of judgment granting the "bailout" if the Attorney General concludes after investigation that the jurisdiction has complied with all of these requirements. Prior to actually filing a petition with the District of Columbia court, any jurisdiction interested in seeking "bailout" may submit a request to the Attorney General with supporting documentation and evidence. Upon receipt, the Voting Section of the Civil Rights Division will undertake an investigation to determine whether the Attorney General would be willing to enter into a consent decree or would oppose the "bailout" petition. If the Attorney General determines that consent to an entry of judgment is proper, the Voting Section will work with the jurisdiction to agree on the terms of the consent decree to be filed with the "bailout" petition when the litigation is actually filed.
A number of jurisdictions have successfully bailed out, but as you can see from above, it is a difficult procedure. The Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District No. 1 (NAMUDNO) had to go all the way to the Supreme Court to allow itself to bailout, even though it wasn't even created until 1987, and had no history of any voter discrimination. In fact, it doesn't even register voters. All they wanted to do was to move a polling place. But they were covered by Section 5 because they were located within Texas.

The effect of Section 5 is that any changes to voting procedures in covered jurisdictions are presumed to be discriminatory. The burden of proof is on the covered jurisdiction to prove the absence of discrimination, per the bail out requirements listed above.

Given that background, consider the first volley I made in this debate:



Richard Goldberg, a Washington, D.C. lawyer for whom I have an enormous amount of respect, called this tweet misleading, but given the above background information, do you really think so? My issue isn't with the bail out. It's with the presumption of discrimination based upon 40+ year old data. Do the federalism costs of intruding on a state's sovereignty, presuming them to be discriminatory until they prove otherwise, justify preclearance based upon data from 1964-1972? I'm sure you won't be surprised by my answer:



The last issue to mention, brought up by my good friend Martin Fisher, is about the respective roles of Congress and the Supreme Court on this issue. He suggests that finding the Voting Rights Act unconstitutional would be "legislating from the bench." I won't spend too much time on this for reasons of time and space, but suffice to say that I support neither "judicial restraint" nor "judicial activism" (partially because those words don't mean anything). They're politically charged words to attack or defend someone depending upon what you or I or someone else may think.

The role of the courts is to weigh the competing interests and come to a conclusion. In this case, the interests on both sides are constitutional and consequential. On one side, federalism and state sovereignty. On the other side, the 15th Amendment. Whether Congress passes a bill by one vote or 435 votes doesn't really weigh on its constitutionality. Finding a law that passed with large majorities unconstitutional is only judicial activism if you like the law. The courts are guided by the rule of law, not by votes. That's one reason why we're a constitutional republic, not a democracy.

This post won't be the end of this debate; in fact, I hope it's just the beginning. We're in for an interesting ride.

22 February 2013

Supreme Court Prediction Tracker

Last updated: 5/26/13

Archived tweets of Supreme Court predictions:









































07 November 2012

Observer-expectancy effect, confirmation bias and the 2012 election

Quite obviously, political predictions and projections are not made in a vacuum. We use results from previous elections, polls, and whatever else we can get our hands on to make a best guess about the next time. We make inferences on that data, and we assign more value to some things and less value to others. In many ways, it is indeed subjective. And we often see more data as somehow being better. But sometimes this can be problematic.

As I put together my projection, I tried to be conscious of confirmation bias. In a close election, partisans on either side are likely going to tilt the projection to their side. I'm not necessarily going to discount this data, but I want to look beyond it, too. So while I acknowledged the potential for confirmation bias, going beyond that for more data tended to mentally insulate me from it. The problem was that additional data, gathered from very smart people, wasn't necessarily any better; just more confirmation bias. And as a result, my results were ultimately biased because of a sort of observer-expectancy effect. Acknowledging the initial confirmation bias gave me the assurance that I was on the right track, yet it was that assurance itself that covered up the secondary bias associated with the additional data.

It's an Inception-like bias inside another bias. Weird. At least that's how I see it.

Next time, I'll have to figure out a way to acknowledge confirmation bias without also simultaneously and inadvertently insulating myself from it at the same time.

02 November 2012

2012 election prediction

I confess I have no idea who will win. I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate wins, or even either candidate surpassing 300 EVs. But there are two reasons why I think Romney will win: First, the GOP base is fired up and more energetic, as seen in virtually every poll. As a result, I think Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than the polls generally project (for reference, 2008 was 39D, 32R, 29I or simply +7D). I think turnout is likely to be closer to 35R, 37D, 28I or +2D, maybe +3D). Second, most every poll shows Romney winning among self-described independents by large single digits. As a result, I have no good reason to deviate from the same map I have drawn over the past month or so. Final prediction: Romney 275, Obama 263.

31 December 2011

2011 predictions update

Everyone makes predictions for the upcoming year, but how many people go back and actually score themselves?

1. The Supreme Court will reverse the Ninth Circuit in Wal-Mart v. Dukes.
TRUE

2. Judge Roger Vinson of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida will find the health care reform law to be unconstitutional.
TRUE

3. The FCC will approve new net neutrality rules (that will probably happen in the next week or so), but the federal courts will find that this oversteps their authority (again).
PARTIALLY TRUE (case is still pending)

4. At least one politician (state legislator or above) will resign when a video of their misconduct goes viral.
Thankfully, we didn't get video of Weiner's weiner, but he did resign. PARTIALLY TRUE

5. North Korea's Kim Jong-il will die and his son, Kim Jong-un, will take over.
TRUE and TRUE

6. At least one Philadelphia sports team will make it to the Super Bowl, NHL Finals, or World Series.
FALSE (unfortunately)

7. Patriots' QB Tom Brady will win the NFL MVP and Eagles' QB Michael Vick will finish second.
TRUE (Note: Brady was unanimous; there was no second place)

8. Baltimore (BWI) will record less than 30 inches of snowfall this winter (please)
TRUE (I think the official number was 18-19 inches)

9. I will get accepted to law school (please) and actually go this time!
FALSE (long story)

10. Stuxnet's creator(s) will be revealed (total guess).
FALSE

And one more for the road that I am most certain of:

DEFCON19 will be canceled.
Always TRUE

20 June 2011

Top ten update

With the news this morning that Wal-Mart succeeded at the Supreme Court in having the Dukes class action suit dismissed, it's time to update the top ten predictions for 2011. Here's a look back at the predictions with updates:


1. The Supreme Court will reverse the Ninth Circuit in Wal-Mart v. Dukes. YES

2. Judge Roger Vinson of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida will find the health care reform law to be unconstitutional. YES

3. The FCC will approve new net neutrality rules (that will probably happen in the next week or so), but the federal courts will find that this oversteps their authority (again). YES and NO

4. At least one politician (state legislator or above) will resign when a video of their misconduct goes viral.  YES and NO (Chris Lee and Anthony Weiner have both resigned, but over pictures and not video)

5. North Korea's Kim Jong-il will die and his son, Kim Jong-un, will take over. NO

6. At least one Philadelphia sports team will make it to the Super Bowl, NHL Finals, or World Series. NO (only the Phillies are left)

7. Patriots' QB Tom Brady will win the NFL MVP and Eagles' QB Michael Vick will finish second. YES (Brady was unanimous)

8. Baltimore (BWI) will record less than 30 inches of snowfall this winter (please) YES (14.4 inches)

9. I will get accepted to law school (please) and actually go this time! NO (wait-listed, blah!)

10. Stuxnet's creator(s) will be revealed (total guess). NO


And of course, the bonus prediction: DEFCON19 will be canceled. YES :-)