2016 election in review

Well, perhaps I should stop making election predictions! I thought Hillary Clinton would win, but I'm not at all surprised that Donald Trump won. 

In the end, this election turned on the ability of Trump to break through Hillary's "blue wall" in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Along with Indiana and Ohio, the rust belt was the difference in this election.

It's worth taking one more look at Trump's closing ad. I think this ad will go down as the defining ad of the campaign. Take a look and see what you think.

2016 election prediction

I misread the polls badly in 2012 and thought Romney would win a close election. It turned out it wasn't that close. For all of the reasons I discounted the polls in 2012, times 100, I really don't know what to think of the polls this time around. All of the convention wisdom has been busted this election cycle. Undoubtedly, the race has tightened considerably within the last two weeks. Is it enough to push Trump over the edge? Possible. Most of the prediction sites have given Trump something like a 35% chance, which is up from the teens just a few weeks ago. We're definitely in margin of error territory. A Brexit-like result is certainly not impossible here.

Still, though, despite all of the winds in Trump's favor, a few strands remain. First, Hillary Clinton has likely banked many millions of early votes. This is likely to preserve a small number of votes that might have left her within the last week. Second, the surge to Trump appears to have come not from undecided voters, but from Republican-leaning independents who are coming back to the base (from candidates like Gary Johnson). Third, the path to electoral victory is strategically easier for Hillary as compared to Trump. There are simply many more options. Trump has to basically run the table on all of the swing states.

I think Hillary Clinton will win this election. Here is my predicted electoral vote map:

The closest states on this map (in order of decreasing electoral votes) are: Florida (29), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4). RCP's "no toss up" map has Nevada and New Hampshire currently leaning toward Trump, but I think they'll ultimately end up on the Clinton side.

Now, with that being said, here is Trump's best chance of winning. As you can see, it comes by the narrowest of margins, but isn't all that far-fetched--in fact, all I did was start with RCP's "no toss up" map on Saturday, November 5th (Clinton 297, Trump 241) and flip Florida's 29 electoral votes to Trump. Florida is so close that this single flip (which is entirely possible) would change the outcome of the election. These predictions show just how close the election might possibly be:

Again, I think Hillary Clinton is likely to win. But if Trump can pull it off, the map will likely look like this one above.

Maryland partisan politics at a glance

No matter how you slice it, it's an uphill battle for Republicans to win statewide elections in Maryland. In the chart on the left, sorted by party performance, Maryland's five democratic counties (plus Baltimore City) equal 64% of the state's population. In the chart on the right, sorted by population, four of the five largest counties are democratic (plus Baltimore City). These five represent 60% of the population. For reference, the counties in the proposed Western Maryland Initiative are highlighted.

Ferguson Township Community Bill of Rights is a Bill of Disaster

In September, I blogged briefly about a proposed "community bill of rights" on the ballot in Ferguson Township, Pennsylvania. I didn't spend much time on it because 1) from a constitutional perspective, it was a complete disaster; and 2) frankly, I didn't think it would pass.

The township considered an injunction to allow the measure's constitutionality to be tested in court before appearing on the ballot, but decided to allow the vote first.

Anyways, I should mention that it did pass: 4,272-3,896.

The cruel irony of this "bill of rights" is that many of the provisions are extremely hostile to individual rights, especially property rights. Additionally, other provisions assert power that the township has no authority to assert in the first place. All in all, a disaster of epic proportions.

I would be surprised if any significant portion of this "bill of rights" goes into effect. If it does, the slippery slope will have gotten a lot steeper.

When women run against women for governor

Women have run against each other for governor four times:

New Mexico, 2010: Susana Martinez (R) vs. Diane Denish (D)
Oklahoma, 2010: Mary Fallin (R) vs. Jari Askins (D)
Hawaii, 2002: Linda Lingle (R) vs. Mazie Hirono (D, now Senator-Elect)
Nebraska, 1986: Kay Orr (R) vs. Helen Boosalis (D)

Interestingly, but probably of little significance due to the small sample size, in all four of these cases, the Republican woman defeated their Democratic woman opponent.

Anne Arundel County and presidential elections

Anne Arundel County Presidential Election Results, 1998-2012

Year	Democrat	Percent	Republican	Percent	Margin
1988	55,440	35.7	98,540	63.5	+27.8R
1992*	68,629	37.0	81,467	44.0	+7.0R
1996**	72,147	42.2	83,574	48.9	+6.7R
2000	89,624	46.0	104,209	53.5	+7.5R
2004	103,324	43.6	133,231	56.2	+12.6R
2008	125,015	48.2	129,683	50.0	+1.8R
2012	116,065	48.3	118,319	49.2	+0.9R

*In 1992, Perot received 19.0% of the vote.
*In 1996, Perot received 8.4% of the vote.

As the chart above indicates, Anne Arundel County has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every year since (at least) 1972 (summaries back to 1960 are available here). The margins have fluctuated, but until 2008 had been 7 points at a minimum in 1996 and as much as 28 points in 1988. Thus, even when Ross Perot was on the ballot, Republican candidates mantained a significant advantage in the county.

The last two presidential elections have seen a significant decrease in that margin: 1.8% in 2008 and just 0.9% in 2012. This year also marked the first time that (notwithstanding a strong third party candidate) the Republican candidate did not gain at least 50% of the county's voters.

Turnout in the county was down--69% across the county (which was the same turnout as statewide) compared to 79% in the county in 2008 (78% statewide).

UPDATE: The 69% turnout figure that I cited does *not* include absentee or provisional ballots. In 2008, Anne Arundel County had 17,540 absentee ballots and 3,942 accepted provisional ballots. These ballots represented 8.2% of the total turnout; turnout without them would have been 72.9% without them. Extrapolating similar absentee and provisional ballots for 2012, turnout projects to be about 75-76%.

Observer-expectancy effect, confirmation bias and the 2012 election

Quite obviously, political predictions and projections are not made in a vacuum. We use results from previous elections, polls, and whatever else we can get our hands on to make a best guess about the next time. We make inferences on that data, and we assign more value to some things and less value to others. In many ways, it is indeed subjective. And we often see more data as somehow being better. But sometimes this can be problematic.

As I put together my projection, I tried to be conscious of confirmation bias. In a close election, partisans on either side are likely going to tilt the projection to their side. I'm not necessarily going to discount this data, but I want to look beyond it, too. So while I acknowledged the potential for confirmation bias, going beyond that for more data tended to mentally insulate me from it. The problem was that additional data, gathered from very smart people, wasn't necessarily any better; just more confirmation bias. And as a result, my results were ultimately biased because of a sort of observer-expectancy effect. Acknowledging the initial confirmation bias gave me the assurance that I was on the right track, yet it was that assurance itself that covered up the secondary bias associated with the additional data.

It's an Inception-like bias inside another bias. Weird. At least that's how I see it.

Next time, I'll have to figure out a way to acknowledge confirmation bias without also simultaneously and inadvertently insulating myself from it at the same time.

Election post-mortem: How I was wrong (and why)

Let me be clear upfront: I was wrong, and I have no problem admitting it.

On Friday, I projected that Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama on the strength of Republican turnout and relative strength among independents. I based this projection upon the estimate that the +7D turnout of 2008 (39D/32R/29I) would look more like +2D/+3D.

In fact, the exit polls from last night showed 38D/32R/29I, or +6D (not sure where that extra percent went!). This seems to suggest that 1) the Republican edge in enthusiasm didn't transform the electorate enough; and conversely, that 2) the relatively less enthusiasm among Democrats didn't reduce their share of the vote as much as I expected.

Among self-described Independents, Romney won 50-45. Indeed, polls have suggested a high single digit lead among such voters, and here the projection was pretty close. But it couldn't be overcome by the relatively higher turnout than expected among Democrats.

Nate Silver will get well-deserved props for his projections, but the much-maligned pollsters (especially from those on the right) deserve props, too. My case for Romney rested on the assumption that polls were oversampling Democrats; and they were, but just ever so slightly. As a result, I thought the numbers going into Nate's model were not accurate and thus likely to edge the model toward the President.

I have tried to make it clear that the race was very close (and indeed, by measure of the popular vote, it was much closer than 2008). A few points here or there may have made a significant difference. Indeed, as I stressed on Friday, it doesn't now surprise me that Obama was able to exceed 300 EVs.

More to come on other election-related issues...

2012 election prediction

I confess I have no idea who will win. I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate wins, or even either candidate surpassing 300 EVs. But there are two reasons why I think Romney will win: First, the GOP base is fired up and more energetic, as seen in virtually every poll. As a result, I think Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than the polls generally project (for reference, 2008 was 39D, 32R, 29I or simply +7D). I think turnout is likely to be closer to 35R, 37D, 28I or +2D, maybe +3D). Second, most every poll shows Romney winning among self-described independents by large single digits. As a result, I have no good reason to deviate from the same map I have drawn over the past month or so. Final prediction: Romney 275, Obama 263.

Maryland's ballot questions in November

Here are the four ballot questions on November's General Election ballot that apply statewide (questions #1-3 are constitutional amendments that only effect certain jurisdictions). The text in the heading is a short summary, while the next that follows it is the actual ballot question text:

#4 - Give in-state college tuition benefits to illegal aliens:

Establishes that individuals, including undocumented immigrants, are eligible to pay in-state tuition rates at community colleges in Maryland, provided the student meets certain conditions relating to attendance and graduation from a Maryland high school, filing of income taxes, intent to apply for permanent residency, and registration with the selective service system (if required); makes such students eligible to pay in-state tuition rates at a four-year public college or university if the student has first completed 60 credit hours or graduated from a community college in Maryland; provides that students qualifying for in-state tuition rates by this method will not be counted as in-state students for purposes of counting undergraduate enrollment; and extends the time in which honorably discharged veterans may qualify for in-state tuition rates.

#5 - Keep Maryland's gerrymandered congressional districting plan:

Establishes the boundaries for the State’s eight United States Congressional Districts based on recent census figures, as required by the United States Constitution.

#6 - Redefine marriage in Maryland to include same-sex couples:

Establishes that Maryland’s civil marriage laws allow gay and lesbian couples to obtain a civil marriage license, provided they are not otherwise prohibited from marrying; protects clergy from having to perform any particular marriage ceremony in violation of their religious beliefs; affirms that each religious faith has exclusive control over its own theological doctrine regarding who may marry within that faith; and provides that religious organizations and certain related entities are not required to provide goods, services, or benefits to an individual related to the celebration or promotion of marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.

#7 – Expand gambling in Maryland:

Do you favor the expansion of commercial gaming in the State of Maryland for the primary purpose of raising revenue for education to authorize video lottery operation licensees to operate “table games” as defined by law; to increase from 15,000 to 16,500 the maximum number of video lottery terminals that may be operated in the State; and to increase from 5 to 6 the maximum number of video lottery operation licenses that may be awarded in the State and allow a video lottery facility to operate in Prince George’s County?

Ferguson Township Community Bill of Rights

Ferguson Township is a mostly rural township in Centre County, Pennsylvania, just west of State College. This fall, the citizens of Ferguson Township gathered enough signatures to place a measure on the November ballot to amend the township's home rule charter to create a Community Bill of Rights.

Here's the text. There are so many problems with this thing I stopped counting.
Ferguson Township Petition for Community Bill of Rights

Can the legislature extend the term of office of an elected official?

Link:

"By a vote of 129-0, the House also approved a bill to move Baltimore City's elections, now held in the year before a presidential election, to the same year as the presidential election starting in 2016.  The bill is designed to boost turnout, but critics say it would allow city officials to run for statewide office in gubernatorial election years without having to give up their current office.  All 23 counties in Maryland hold their elections during the same year as the gubernatorial election.  The Senate has approved a similar bill.  If it is approved by both chambers, current Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and the current city council would remain in office until 2016."

Your thoughts on the legal aspects of the legislature extending the term of office of an elected official?

Mother Jones article about suicides deserves a closer look

Update 7/27: I questioned the author about her numbers:

@smencimer your Mother Jones article is confusing; 9 suicides over two years in a 38,000 student district is just about the national average

She responded:

@theprez98 many were clustered in a single school. Also one was of a 13 yr old, which is very rare. National rate is one in every 65000

And she's right: the suicide rate for children age 10-14 is 1 in 65,000. That's not a number I had considered. But what does it prove, especially since she claims that one of the students (of the nine) was 13? It doesn't prove anything.

Let's do some rough math: Presuming that 38,000 students are split equally in ages from 6-18, we'd have about 2,900 students of each age, and ~14,600 students age 10-14. Over a two year period, this becomes ~29,000 students, one of which committed suicide. So one of 29,000 students committed suicide compared to a national average of one per 65,000. I suppose you could argue that this is "double the national average!" However, it's one student. Again, as tragic as it is, one student does not make an epidemic.

And she agrees:

@theprez98 yes, age group is key. and yes: not an epidemic. bad word choice. but tech. a cluster. First 5 suicides were very close together.

------------
There is a Mother Jones article being passed around on Twitter entitled, "The Teen Suicide Epidemic in Michele Bachmann's District." The article doesn't blame Rep. Bachmann for the suicides, obviously, but suggests that

[s]ome of the victims were gay, or perceived to be by their classmates, and many were reportedly bullied. And the anti-gay activists who are some of the congresswoman's closest allies stand accused of blocking an effective response to the crisis and fostering a climate of intolerance that allowed bullying to flourish.

The article also said that "State public health officials have labeled the area a 'suicide contagion area' because of the unusually high death rate."  The article itself cites 9 suicides over the past two years in one particular school district.

Sensing that something might be amiss with the motivation behind this article, I decided to take a closer look at the underlying numbers.

According to the CDC, about 34,000 people commit suicide every year in the United States. Based on the current U.S. population of just over 310 million people, this represents about one suicide for every 9,100 people. This translates to about 11 suicides for every 100,000 people.

The article states that the school district in question has 38,000 students. Mapping the school district against the national average, you would expect that about 4.2 students out of 38,000 would commit suicide in a year; or 8.4 students over a two year period.  Again, this is according to the national average, which represents all age groups.  So we're looking at 9 suicides vs. 8.4 suicide national average.

As it turns out, you might be surprised that teenagers (well, age group 15-24) actually has a slightly lower suicide rate than the national average (about 10 per 100,000), which translates to 7.6 students out of 38,000 students over a two year period.

Lastly, multiple reports suggest that, while the exact rates are unclear, LGBT youth have a comparatively higher suicide rate than the general population.

So let's recap: The article reported that 9 student suicides (out of 38,000 students) over a two year period was an "epidemic."  National and age-group relevant statistics suggests that over a two year period, approximately 8 students would commit suicide out of this population (not even accounting for a higher LGBT rate).

While these suicides are indeed tragic, this article is not newsworthy, and it's purpose must be questioned. It's hard to imagine that this is anything but a dirty political hit piece designed to stain a presidential candidate.

2011 Baltimore City Election early look

The Baltimore Sun has an article about an early look at some of the already announced candidates and potential candidates for mayor in next year's Baltimore City municipal election.  Current Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake came to office after Sheila Dixon's resignation, so while she is the incumbent, she hasn't stood for election as Mayor on her own.

According to the Sun:

Otis Rolley, 36, who created the city's first master plan in 2006 while working for then-Mayor Martin O'Malley, has launched a campaign website and is aggressively raising funds.

Frank Conaway Sr., 77, the clerk of the Circuit Court, has announced a bid, saying the city needs "a father figure." And state Sen. Catherine Pugh, Council President Bernard C. "Jack" Young and Councilman Carl Stokes are all said to be considering a run for mayor.

Perhaps the most formidable name that some mention — as has been the case for mayoral races stretching back more than a decade — is Kweisi Mfume, the former congressman and past president of the NAACP.

Mfume denies that he is planning a campaign, but he chooses his words carefully, leaving open the possibility that he could launch a bid for the city's highest office early next year.

With no other elections of note to follow until the 2012 presidential primaries begin, we'll keep an eye on this race as the most interesting locally until then.

A blast from the past, 2004 election predictions

Although I have been making election predictions for a while now, I typically have done them as part of a contest, on something based on another site, and thus I haven't done a very good job of documenting them.  I did remember that I took part in such a contest back in 2004 at The Hedgehog Report, which is a Maryland political blog (interestingly enough, I had no connection to Maryland back then).  Needless to say, I dug up the results (he gave me an unfortunate middle initial "T" but I can assure you, that's me):

If I can dig through old spreadsheets and other places I may have stored my data, I might be able to find some other older predictions.

How did Arundel Mills voters vote on the 2008 slots referendum?

This is a map of Anne Arundel County voting precinct 1-22-32, which contains Arundel Mills Mall and the areas around it.  The boundaries are Ridge Road and Arundel Mills Blvd on the east, MD-175 on the south, the train tracks on the western county border, and MD-100 on the north.

The people that live in this precinct (and to some extend, the neighboring precincts to the east which we'll get to later) are said to be those who are most opposed to a slots casino adjacent to the Arundel Mills Mall.  So it would be interesting to know: how did these people vote in 2008 on the statewide ballot question that authorized slots?  As a reminder, here is the text that was on the ballot:

Authorizing Video Lottery Terminals (Slot Machines) to Fund Education

Authorizes the State to issue up to five video lottery licenses for the primary purpose of raising revenue for education of children in public schools, prekindergarten through grade 12, public school construction and improvements, and construction of capital projects at community colleges and higher education institutions. No more than a total number of 15,000 video lottery terminals may be authorized in the State, and only one license may be issued for each specified location in Anne Arundel, Cecil, Worcester, and Allegany Counties, and Baltimore City. Any additional forms or expansion of commercial gaming in Maryland is prohibited, unless approved by a voter referendum.

While this ballot question did not list specific locations, some voters in Anne Arundel County believed that Laurel Park would be the most logical choice, and apparently voted accordingly.  Let's take a look at the final certified votes for Anne Arundel County voting precinct 1-22-32 in 2008 on the statewide ballot question:

1-22-32: 1393-904 (60.64%-39.36%)

Now let's also include the results of the three precincts directly east of this one:

1-06-32: 806-453 (64.02%-35.98%)
1-05-32: 570-403 (58.58%-41.42%)
1-20-32: 984-641 (60.55%-39.45%

For the sake of this post, we'll call these four precincts "Arundel Mills voters."  Now let's take a look at the aggregate totals:

Arundel Mills voters: 3753-2401 (61.0%-39.0%)
Anne Arundel County: 149,604-103,814 (59.0%-41.0%)
Maryland 1,482,295-1,043,129 (58.7%-41.3%)

In other words, Arundel Mills voters voted for slots in a greater proportion as Anne Arundel County as a whole, and even more so than compared to voters statewide.  These are the same voters who are supposedly outraged at the Cordish proposal set to be built adjacent to Arundel Mills Mall.  There is a name for these sorts of people who claim to support things, but then turn around and oppose them when they realize that it's being built close to them: NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard).

Regardless of the outcome next month, it will be interesting to see what the true level of support and opposition is in these precincts.

More change you can believe in!

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama will break a campaign pledge and sign a budget bill laden with millions in lawmakers' pet projects, administration officials said.

"Change is coming"

130 tons of trash was left on the Mall in DC following Obama's inauguration.

"Oh say can you..." what?!

Is this what we can expect when the Democrats meet in Denver for the Democratic National Convention?

No shortage of money

While I do not watch TV very much, I came across a Barrack Obama ad last night. Living in Maryland, a state that will undoubtedly go for Obama in November, I guess I should admit I was a little bit surprised. Running general election ads in a safe state in July seems like a waste of money. Then again, Obama appears to be rolling in it, so why not spend it?