Anne Arundel County and presidential elections

Anne Arundel County Presidential Election Results, 1998-2012

Year	Democrat	Percent	Republican	Percent	Margin
1988	55,440	35.7	98,540	63.5	+27.8R
1992*	68,629	37.0	81,467	44.0	+7.0R
1996**	72,147	42.2	83,574	48.9	+6.7R
2000	89,624	46.0	104,209	53.5	+7.5R
2004	103,324	43.6	133,231	56.2	+12.6R
2008	125,015	48.2	129,683	50.0	+1.8R
2012	116,065	48.3	118,319	49.2	+0.9R

*In 1992, Perot received 19.0% of the vote.
*In 1996, Perot received 8.4% of the vote.

As the chart above indicates, Anne Arundel County has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every year since (at least) 1972 (summaries back to 1960 are available here). The margins have fluctuated, but until 2008 had been 7 points at a minimum in 1996 and as much as 28 points in 1988. Thus, even when Ross Perot was on the ballot, Republican candidates mantained a significant advantage in the county.

The last two presidential elections have seen a significant decrease in that margin: 1.8% in 2008 and just 0.9% in 2012. This year also marked the first time that (notwithstanding a strong third party candidate) the Republican candidate did not gain at least 50% of the county's voters.

Turnout in the county was down--69% across the county (which was the same turnout as statewide) compared to 79% in the county in 2008 (78% statewide).

UPDATE: The 69% turnout figure that I cited does *not* include absentee or provisional ballots. In 2008, Anne Arundel County had 17,540 absentee ballots and 3,942 accepted provisional ballots. These ballots represented 8.2% of the total turnout; turnout without them would have been 72.9% without them. Extrapolating similar absentee and provisional ballots for 2012, turnout projects to be about 75-76%.

Election post-mortem: How I was wrong (and why)

Let me be clear upfront: I was wrong, and I have no problem admitting it.

On Friday, I projected that Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama on the strength of Republican turnout and relative strength among independents. I based this projection upon the estimate that the +7D turnout of 2008 (39D/32R/29I) would look more like +2D/+3D.

In fact, the exit polls from last night showed 38D/32R/29I, or +6D (not sure where that extra percent went!). This seems to suggest that 1) the Republican edge in enthusiasm didn't transform the electorate enough; and conversely, that 2) the relatively less enthusiasm among Democrats didn't reduce their share of the vote as much as I expected.

Among self-described Independents, Romney won 50-45. Indeed, polls have suggested a high single digit lead among such voters, and here the projection was pretty close. But it couldn't be overcome by the relatively higher turnout than expected among Democrats.

Nate Silver will get well-deserved props for his projections, but the much-maligned pollsters (especially from those on the right) deserve props, too. My case for Romney rested on the assumption that polls were oversampling Democrats; and they were, but just ever so slightly. As a result, I thought the numbers going into Nate's model were not accurate and thus likely to edge the model toward the President.

I have tried to make it clear that the race was very close (and indeed, by measure of the popular vote, it was much closer than 2008). A few points here or there may have made a significant difference. Indeed, as I stressed on Friday, it doesn't now surprise me that Obama was able to exceed 300 EVs.

More to come on other election-related issues...

2012 election prediction

I confess I have no idea who will win. I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate wins, or even either candidate surpassing 300 EVs. But there are two reasons why I think Romney will win: First, the GOP base is fired up and more energetic, as seen in virtually every poll. As a result, I think Republicans will turn out in greater numbers than the polls generally project (for reference, 2008 was 39D, 32R, 29I or simply +7D). I think turnout is likely to be closer to 35R, 37D, 28I or +2D, maybe +3D). Second, most every poll shows Romney winning among self-described independents by large single digits. As a result, I have no good reason to deviate from the same map I have drawn over the past month or so. Final prediction: Romney 275, Obama 263.